Russia Boosts Military Presence in Armenia
Amid escalating tension with Armenia stemming from Yerevan’s desire to pivot westward, and lacking the ability to offer economic incentives, Russia is resorting to a traditional tactic to get its way: throw troops at the problem.
A memo purportedly written by a high-ranking commander of Russia’s Southern Military District, and leaked by Ukrainian military intelligence, indicates that Russia is bolstering its troop contingent at its 102nd military base near the Armenian city of Gyumri. The document supposedly outlines steps needed to implement the “urgent replenishment” of the 102nd garrison, which, by implication, had been understrength.
Troops from units currently stationed across the Southern Military District will reportedly be redeployed to the Gyumri base. The process was to be completed by mid-June, according to the Ukrainian media reports.
“The order clarified the requirements for professional fitness, level of psychological stability and combat training of personnel that will be part of the future international contingent. In particular, it is forbidden to select persons ‘who took part in the illegal circulation of narcotic drugs, psychotropic substances,’” the Ukrainian report on the leaked memo states.
Armenian officials initially denied Ukrainian reports of a troop surge at the Gyumri base. In response to those denials, Ukrainian military intelligence opted July 7 to leak the contents of the memo.
Russian officials seem to hope a troop surge will act as an instrument of pressure on the Armenian government. Yerevan is presently in the midst of an increasingly bitter geopolitical split with Russia, with its roots in the Kremlin’s failure to fulfill security guarantees during the Second Karabakh War. More recently, Russian officials have been vexed by the Armenian government’s arrest of an Armenian-Russian oligarch and others suspected of engaging in anti-government agitation in Yerevan.
On July 4, Armenia reportedly delivered a diplomatic note to the Russian ambassador in Yerevan, accusing the Kremlin of orchestrating “openly unfriendly, often hostile propaganda against the Government of the Republic of Armenia in the mass media of the Russian Federation.”
Some observers say the latest bout of acrimony highlights Russia’s diminished ability to sway its neighbors, and prevent a geopolitical reordering in the South Caucasus.
“Moscow is attempting to retake Armenia — not with tanks, but with Telegram channels, paid influencers, and geriatric loyalists,” noted a recent commentary published by the Moscow Times.
“This will not be easy. Russian sources themselves admit there is now ‘no one to speak for Russia’ in Armenia.”
“It is hard to win hearts with empty promises, especially from the country that abandoned you in war,” the commentary adds. “The Armenian public, especially the youth, is more interested in visas to Paris and tech jobs in Silicon Valley than Soviet fairy tales.”
By Eurasianet.org
