USD / CAD - Canadian dollar trading defensively
- Trump’s Alaska Summit yields—Nothing
- Friday’s US data downgraded Fed rate cut expectations
- US dollar opens little changed vs the majors ahead of event risk this week
USDCAD open 1.3798, overnight range 1.3792-1.3819, close 1.3820, WTI 62.47, Gold 3348.26
The Canadian dollar eked out a tiny gain compared to Friday’s close, but prices remain on the defensive heading into some key events this week.
Friday’s healthier than expected US data downgraded odds for a September rate cut to 82.6% from about 92% a week earlier.
WTI oil fluctuated in a 61.66–62.56 band while trying to close the gap between Friday’s 63.12 settlement and the Asia open at 62.18, with sentiment also dampened by the lack of progress from the Trump–Putin meeting.
Markets opened the week quietly, though activity should pick up as leaders from the United States, Ukraine, the EU, Germany, the U.K., France, Italy, and NATO meet to discuss Russia and Ukraine. No breakthrough is expected, but traders will react to any sign of unity or division. The release of the July 30 FOMC minutes on Wednesday is likely to highlight internal rifts after two members sided with Trump in favor of cuts, each positioning as a possible Powell successor. Powell himself will speak Friday at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium, expected to reinforce his “unchanged for longer” stance following stronger U.S. retail sales, import prices, and manufacturing data last week.
Asian equity markets closed mostly higher, with Japan’s Topix up 1.63% and Australia’s ASX 200 adding 0.73%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.98% after weak Chinese numbers. In Europe, the CAC-40 rose 0.55% while the DAX and FTSE 100 were flat. S&P 500 futures were fractionally positive, the U.S. 10-year yield held at 4.29%, gold traded at 3337.98, and the dollar index stayed steady at 97.92.
EURUSD traded in a 1.1716–1.1671 range overnight, easing as the Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska produced little and the Eurozone trade surplus collapsed to €7 billion compared to expectations for €17.58 billion. Traders are now watching for outcomes from an EU meeting in Washington, but Powell’s remarks later in the week will likely be more decisive for direction.
GBPUSD moved in a 1.3531–1.3566 band while consolidating early-month gains. Markets are leaning toward the view that the BoE has only another 50 bps of easing left, and that assumption will be tested with Wednesday’s July CPI release (forecast 3.7% versus 3.6% previously).
USDJPY held between 147.08 and 147.58 in subdued trading. A lack of fresh catalysts and caution ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech kept moves contained, with the 10-year yield near 4.30% offering mild support.
AUDUSD traded within a 0.6506–0.6525 corridor, finding modest support from last week’s stronger employment figures that eased pressure on the RBA to cut further.
