USD / CAD - Canadian dollar awaiting GDP data
- US data eyed for details of Trump’s tariff fall-out.
- Eurozone data dump largely ignored
- US dollar grinds out gains-CAD and MXN outperform
USDCAD: open 1.3834, overnight range 1.3817-1.3847, close 1.3834, WTI 60.06, Gold 3275.34
The Canadian dollar is inching higher in subdued trading conditions ahead of this morning’s US and Canadian economic releases. February GDP is projected to be flat (0.0%) following a 0.4% gain in January. Currency markets have largely brushed aside election headlines but have taken note of the jump in deficit spending.
WTI oil dropped from 63.70 at the start of the week to 59.20, under pressure from demand concerns tied to Trump’s trade policies and Opec’s apparent intention to lift output. The American Petroleum Institute added to bearish sentiment by reporting a 3.74-million-barrel build in US crude inventories yesterday.
EURUSD traded in a 1.1355-1.1399 range while showing little reaction to a raft of eurozone data Eurozone Q1 GDP came in better than forecast at 0.4% q/q compared to 0.2%. The focus has shifted to this morning’s US figures.
GBPUSD traded in a 1.3358-1.3415 range with prices drifting lower and extending Tuesday’s slide. Trump softened his tariff rhetoric, which lent strength to the US dollar Weakness in US Treasury yields, which slipped to 4.165% from 4.24%, suggested reduced US recession risks.
USDJPY traded in a 142.15-143.15 range and climbed steadily overnight, reaching its peak into the NY open. Japan’s March Industrial Production contracted 1.1%, reversing a 2.3% gain in February. Meanwhile, Large Retailer Sales surged 3.1% as buyers rushed to beat potential tariffs. The data likely cements the BoJ’s decision to stay on hold tomorrow.
AUDUSD traded in a 0.6379-0.6418 range and touched the session high following hotter-than-expected Q1 inflation data. Headline CPI rose 0.9% q/q versus 0.8% expected and 0.2% prior. However, Core CPI eased to 2.9% y/y from 3.3%, landing within the RBA’s target range and raising the odds of a near-term rate cut.
The spotlight today is firmly on US data. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, Core-PCE, is forecast to slip to 2.6% y/y for March from 2.8%, while Q1 GDP is expected to rise just 0.4% y/y versus 2.4% in the previous quarter. ADP payrolls are anticipated at 108,000, well below February’s 155,000 gain.
