USD / CAD - Canadian dollar rangebound but with bearish bias
- Loonie is steady in wake of USD risk-aversion rally.
- Global equity markets drowning in sea of red
- US dollar opens on a mixed note-antipodean currencies underperform.
USDCAD: open 1.4262, overnight range 1.4195-1.4269, close 1.4226, WTI 59.08, Gold 3025.89
The Canadian dollar is holding its ground in a risk-off environment. The Loonie is getting a modest lift after Canada was left off Trump’s list of countries hit with the new 10% minimum tariffs. Still, it didn’t escape unscathed—previous rounds of US tariffs targeting Canadian lumber, steel, aluminium, potash, and oil remain in place. Canada responded in a measured fashion, which—so far—hasn’t drawn the ire of the White House.
Friday’s Canadian employment report was weak, with a loss of 32,600 jobs, and it keeps a 25 bp rate cut on the table for April 14.
Saudi Arabia is adding to the pressure on crude markets. It slashed its benchmark export price to Asia by $2.50/b effective May 1, following last week’s announcement that OPEC would triple its previously planned production hike. WTI fell to $58.95 from $60.98 overnight.
EURUSD bounced within a 1.0878–1.1050 range, drawing mild support as investors look for alternatives to the US dollar. EU policymakers are expected to respond to Trump’s tariff move with caution. Officials warned the new duties could shave between 0.05% and 1.00% off GDP.
GBPUSD traded in a 1.2830–1.2934 band. The pair reversed Friday’s rally, falling to session lows on growing expectations of a Bank of England rate cut on May 8. Markets now see over a 90% chance of a 25 bp cut, with two more likely to follow later in the year.
USDJPY churned in a 144.82–146.85 range. The yen surged on the Asian open but gave up gains as safe-haven flows were offset by fears around US protectionism. Reports suggest Japan’s Prime Minister is engaging Washington to soften the impact of Trump’s tariff offensive.
AUDUSD traded between 0.5934 and 0.6061, opening in New York at 0.6018. The Aussie was battered by global recession fears and renewed trade war tensions. China’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods have stoked worries of a prolonged standoff between Australia’s two biggest trading partners.
There are no scheduled US or Canadian economic releases today
