USD / CAD - Canadian dollar Trading higher
- US Markets closed Tomorrow-NFP report today.
- Weak US data raises odds for 3 Fed rate cuts in 2025
- US dollar trading with a negative bias
USDCAD open 1.3591, overnight range 1.3579-1.3601, close 1.3593, WTI 66.92, Gold 3346.38
The Canadian dollar is riding the bearish dollar wave and consolidated its recent gains in an uneventful overnight session. The greenback is under pressure after a series of weaker than expected US economic reports, including yesterdays ADP data which showed the economy lost 33,000 jobs, increased the odds that the Fed would cut rates three times before year end.
WTI is hovering between 66.67 and 67.46. Yesterday’s brief rally to 67.58 was driven by headlines that said Iran suspended cooperation with the IAEA, along with trade deal optimism. However, the gains quickly faded following EIA data showing a 3.8-million-barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories and growing speculation that OPEC may boost production by 411,000 barrels per day at its upcoming meeting.
Asian equity markets were mostly flat, though the Hang Seng Index dipped 0.63%. In Europe, stock markets are mixed with the FTSE 100 showing relative strength, up 0.34%. S&P 500 futures are treading water while spot gold (XAUUSD) sits at 3350.81. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is holding at 4.256%.
EURUSD extended gains, rising from 1.1787 to 1.1810, following stronger-than-expected Eurozone PMI data. Services PMI came in at 50.5 while the Composite reading rose to 50.6. German and French figures also exceeded forecasts, though they remain in contraction territory. Technicals point to further upside, as the pair holds above 1.1550 and continues to respect the March uptrend. Reports suggest some ECB officials are growing uneasy with euro strength and are quietly considering more aggressive rate cuts.
GBPUSD saw wild swings. Yesterday, it plunged from 1.3754 to 1.3564 on UK political jitters that were magnified by weak U.S. employment data. Markets briefly entertained the idea that Chancellor Rachel Reeves might be ousted, before Prime Minister Starmer publicly voiced his support. The pound rebounded, and momentum continued overnight, pushing GBPUSD from 1.3624 to 1.3676 on the back of stronger UK Services PMI data for June, which jumped to 52.8 from 50.9.
USDJPY ranged between 143.33 and 144.25, staying defensive ahead of the anticipated U.S. data dump and growing expectations for a faster pace of Fed rate cuts. Comments from BoJ board member Hajime Takata calling for additional rate hikes also weighed on the dollar.
AUDUSD remained buoyant, trading in a 0.6563 to 0.6587 band. The Aussie is supported by bets that weak U.S. payrolls data could hasten Fed easing, which would pressure the greenback. Political drama over the U.S. budget and ongoing tariff theatrics are also influencing sentiment.
With U.S. markets closed Friday for Independence Day, traders face a flood of economic data today. Topping the list is the June non-farm payrolls report, with expectations set at 110,000 new jobs, down from 139,000 in May. However, concern is building that the report will disappoint after yesterday’s ADP data revealed job losses. Other important releases include ISM Services PMI, seen at 50.5 versus 50 previously, along with the Goods Trade Balance and initial jobless claims.
