How High Will Oil Prices Go on a Middle East Supply Disruption?

Crude oil prices could rise by between 15% and 20% from pre-war levels in case of disruption of 1.1 million barrels daily in production, Citi analysts have said, putting Brent crude’s wartime price at between $75 and $78 per barrel.

If the supply disruption is larger, above 3 million barrels daily, Brent crude could hit $90, the bank also said.

Earlier today, Brent topped $77 per barrel, with ING the latest to say it could top $120 per barrel in the case of a supply disruption. Citi, however, does not believe supply disruption would have much of an effect on prices, thinking about OPEC’s spare capacity cushion. ING, on the other hand, noted that this cushion is concentrated rather close to the military action, which makes its use potentially problematic.

“Production elsewhere globally may have risen sufficiently to offset the disruption impact, particularly if the production disruption was expected,” Citi analysts said, as quoted by Reuters.

The “may” in that sentence might constitute a problem in case of an actual supply disruption in the Middle East because it suggests the rise is far from a fact—and production in the world’s largest oil producer, the United States, is actually slowing down, not accelerating.

Iran, meanwhile, is in a rush to export as much oil as it can before President Trump makes his decision on U.S. involvement in the war, it seems. According to a Bloomberg report citing data from TankerTrackers.com, Iran is loading oil from storage on tankers and sending it abroad at an accelerated rate. It is also pumping more oil into the storage tanks, from where it gets loaded on the tankers, the data, based on satellite imagery of the tanks, suggested.

Since June 13, the start of the Israeli offensive against Iran, the latter has exported on average 2.33 million barrels per day, according to TankerTrackers.com data.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com