USD / CAD - Canadian dollar trades with positive bias.
- Post Court of International trade tariff decision gains fading.
- US data includes GDP and Core PCE expenditures
- US dollar opens mixed in choppy trading
USDCAD: open 1.3822, overnight range 1.3817-1.3862, close 1.3839, WTI 62.78, Gold 3282.36
The Canadian dollar was choppy overnight but opened little changed in NY due to the reaction to the FOMC minutes and the US Court of International Trade tariff ruling.
The Court of International Trade (CIT) struck down the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify tariffs, ruling that such application was not permitted under the law. The court clarified that the issue was not about effectiveness or wisdom, but about legality.
Despite the CIT ruling striking down Trump tariffs enacted under the International Economic Powers Act, the overall trade dynamic between the U.S. and Canada remains largely unchanged, as key tariffs on steel and aluminum continue to apply.
The tone from the latest FOMC minutes leaned mildly hawkish and should limit Canadian dollar gains. That’s because markets are pricing in a 25 bp rate cut by the Bank of Canada on June 4, while the Federal Reserve is not expected to move until at least September.
WTI oil firmed within a 61.82–63.07 band, finding support after OPEC pushed back on expectations for a production increase in June, opting instead to maintain existing output levels.
Asian equity markets closed higher. Japan’s Topix climbed 1.53%, the Hang Seng added 1.35%, while Australia’s ASX 200 lagged with a 0.15% rise. In Europe, the French CAC 40 index gained 0.71% and Germany’s DAX was up 0.44%. S&P 500 futures have gained 0.98%.
EURUSD traded in a 1.1210–1.1298 range. The pair initially dropped in Asia after the CIT’s ruling but recouped losses during early New York trading as markets digested the uncertain policy path forward. With no key Eurozone data, traders focused on U.S. developments and risk appetite shifts.
GBPUSD ranged between 1.3415 and 1.3484 overnight. Sterling recovered all losses by the New York open as markets absorbed Nvidia’s results, the Fed’s tone, and the U.S. trade ruling. Some lift may have come from reports suggesting UK officials are playing down the court decision to keep a U.S. trade deal on track.
USDJPY churned inside a 144.76–146.28 band. USDJPY climbed early, then reversed course despite a mild uptick in 10-year Treasury yields from 4.51% to 4.54%.
AUDUSD held to a 0.6407–0.6450 range. It mirrored broader dollar moves and remains locked in a tight range.
Todays US data includes Q1 Core PCE, Q1 GDP, and weekly jobless claims (expected at 230,000 vs 227,000 previously).
